According to PwC’s Media and Entertainment Outlook for 2024 to 2028, South Africa’s box office revenue is projected to surpass pre-COVID-19 levels by 2028. This report analyzes the revenue trends impacting the media landscape in South Africa over the next four years.
In 2019, the cinema industry generated approximately US$67 million from ticket sales. However, the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic in early 2020 led to a steep decline, with revenue dropping below US$13 million. Since then, the industry has been on a recovery path, but several challenges have hindered ticket sales.
One significant issue has been load-shedding, which has affected cinema operations. Many cineplexes struggled without backup power, leading to interrupted screenings that discouraged moviegoers from attending. Additionally, the 118-day Hollywood Writers Strike in 2023 delayed the production and release of major films, impacting revenue in 2024.
Between 2021 and 2023, ticket sales saw a steady increase; however, the revenue growth was only marginal in 2024. Ster-Kinekor reported that key blockbusters were delayed, with release dates pushed back by 12 to 18 months, contributing to the stagnation in revenue growth.
The pandemic also accelerated the shift toward streaming services, influencing consumer behaviour. Ster-Kinekor CEO Mark Sardi highlighted that the convenience of home viewing and concerns about travelling to cinemas amid infrastructural challenges have deterred potential audiences.
Despite these challenges, PwC anticipates that box office revenue could return to pre-Covid-19 levels by the end of 2027 and exceed 2019 figures in 2028. While cinemas around the globe faced similar downturns, South African theatres have struggled comparatively with ticket sales.
Internationally, the US experienced an over 80% decline in box office from 2019 to 2020, with revenue dropping from US$11.4 billion to US$2.1 billion. Since then, the US box office revenue has rebounded by roughly 305%, with an increase of US$6.4 billion. In contrast, South African revenue has only increased about 220% since its low point.
European cinemas also faced less severe impacts, with only a 66% reduction in revenue, recovering to about 80% of pre-COVID levels by 2023. Many European nations, such as Austria, Belgium, and France, returned to their 2019 revenue levels. Several other countries, including Albania, Georgia, and Serbia, even surpassed their pre-pandemic averages by 2023. Reports suggest Europe is on track to return to pre-Covid revenue by 2026.
The differing recovery rates may be attributed to the supply of cinemas and the affordability of movie-going experiences. Omdia’s analysis with UNIC indicates that Africa and the Middle East have approximately 9.9 cinemas per million people, compared to 55.2 in Europe and 105.3 in the US.
For many South Africans, cinema outings can be costly. Tickets for 2D films at Ster-Kinekor and Nu Metro cost US$6.95 and US$7.24, respectively. Consequently, a two-person night out at the cinema can easily exceed US$16.09, while a monthly Netflix Premium subscription costs US$10.68.
While South Africa’s cinema industry is on the mend, it faces unique challenges that continue to shape its recovery trajectory.
