Industry measurement body WARC says global advertising spending will surpass US$1trn for the first time this year (to $1.08trn), up 10.7% in 2023. Further, 7.6% and 7.0% are forecast for 2025 and 2026, culminating in a global ad market worth US$1.24trn. Global ad investment has more than doubled over the last decade and has grown 2.8 times faster than global economic output since 2014.
One cloud on the horizon (for some, not everyone) is the threat the current US Department of Justice investigation into Google poses, potentially affecting US$32.9bn of future ad spend growth.
While online media are mostly driving 2024 growth, a good year for TV has also made a notable contribution. Linear TV spending is expected to end the year 1.9% higher, at $153.6bn, following two years of decline. TV has been boosted by political advertising – particularly in the US – during the fourth quarter, the Paris Olympics, and the Euro 2024 football tournament in the third. Linear TV now accounts for only 14.3% of global advertising spend; however, it is down from a peak of 41.3% in 2013.
Pure play internet, which encompasses advertising revenue among online-only businesses such as Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta, is poised to grow by 14.1% to a total of $741.4bn—over two-thirds (68.8%) of all ad spend.
Holiday advertising is forecast to hit US$299bn in 2024, with online platforms such as Amazon (US$16.9bn in holiday season ad revenue) set to be the biggest beneficiaries.
James McDonald, director of data, intelligence and forecasting at WARC and author of the research, says: “Our latest forecast anticipates US$104bn in incremental advertising spend worldwide this year, the largest rise in history if the post-pandemic recovery year of 2021 is discounted.
“Whether this boom will sustain remains unclear, however, as 2025 presents a sliding doors moment due to heightened regulatory pressures on Google and TikTok – together a quarter of the ad market outside of China. This, alongside an increasingly challenging geopolitical climate, may spell uncertain times ahead for the businesses that rely on advertising trade.”
