According to industry reports, Nigeria is set to lead the rest of Africa in pay TV subscriptions, with an expected 55 million subscribers by 2029. The report also indicates that the number of pay TV subscribers in Africa will increase by 12 million between 2023 and 2029.
This includes an additional seven million pay satellite TV subscribers and five million more pay DTT homes. By 2029, the total number of pay TV subscribers in Africa is expected to reach 55 million, with satellite TV contributing 33 million and DTT contributing 21 million.
The report also notes that there are 43 million pay-TV subscribers in Africa, of which 26 million are satellite TV and 16 million are DTT. Four countries are predicted to supply nearly half of the pay TV subscriber total by 2029, with eight countries accounting for two-thirds of the total. Nigeria is expected to provide 10 million subscribers, overtaking South Africa in 2022.
According to Simon Murray, the Principal Analyst, Africa still has plenty of pay TV potential despite a recent slowdown in new subscriptions. Between 2023 and 2029, 27 million TV households will be added, totalling 130 million. In 2021, Digital TV Research forecasted that Nigeria would have 10 million pay TV subscribers by 2025. The analyst firm also predicted that Africa would have 47.26 million pay TV subscribers by 2025, up from 30.70 million at the end of 2019. Nigeria is expected to contribute 10 million subscribers, overtaking South Africa in 2020.
Despite the strong subscriber growth, competition is intense. Prices and average revenue per user are falling as rivals fight to gain subscribers. Pay TV revenues are predicted to reach US$7.20 billion by 2025, up by US$1.72 billion in 2019. StarTimes/ StarSat is expected to enjoy the most impressive growth, from 9.10 million subscribers at the end of 2019 to 16.39 million by 2025. Multichoice will follow this from 14.56 million across satellite TV platforms DStv and Digital Terrestrial Television platform GOtv by the end of 2019 to 18.05 million by 2025, with satellite TV growth slowing down.
In an earlier report, Digital TV Research predicted that South Africa and Nigeria would account for 60% of Africa’s Subscription Video On Demand (SVOD) subscribers by 2023, with Nigeria reaching 2.61 million subscribers. The report stated that Africa would reach 9.99 million SVOD subscribers across 35 Sub-Saharan African countries by 2023, up from 1.56 million at the end of 2017. The survey estimated that SVOD revenues would only be US$775 million by 2023 despite the massive growth, as some platforms were cheap.
The report reveals that Africa still has much potential for pay TV growth, with Nigeria leading the way in subscriber numbers. However, competition is fierce, and prices and average revenue per user are falling, indicating a need for innovative strategies to attract and retain subscribers.
