According to a report from the International Data Corporation (IDC), global expenditures on telecommunications and pay-TV services are projected to reach US$1,544 billion in 2024, marking a year-on-year increase of 2.4%. This revised forecast improves by 1.0 percentage points from IDC’s May edition.
If this prediction holds, it would represent the strongest annual growth rate observed in the past twelve years.
The upward revisions mainly impact the Middle East, Africa (MEA), and Latin America, primarily driven by hyperinflation in countries such as Turkey, Egypt, Nigeria, and Argentina. In these regions, average revenue per user (ARPU) has risen by more than 50% annually.
In contrast, the outlook for Europe and Asia Pacific has been slightly downgraded due to worsening economic conditions in key markets like Germany and China. Meanwhile, the North American forecast has remained relatively stable, with minor positive changes noted in Canada.
Analysis of telecom services indicates that established trends are still in play despite shifts in overall forecasts. The mobile segment continues to dominate, propelled by the increased use of mobile data and machine-to-machine (M2M) applications, even as spending on mobile voice and messaging services declines.
Growth in the fixed data services segment is expected to continue, driven by the demand for higher bandwidth. However, spending on fixed voice services is projected to decrease as the growth in IP voice services does not balance the rapid decline in traditional TDM voice revenues.
Slight declines are anticipated in the traditional pay-TV market due to the rising popularity of video-on-demand (VoD) and over-the-top (OTT) services. However, these will remain integral to the multi-play offerings provided by telecom operators worldwide.
The global connectivity services market is expected to maintain a positive trajectory over the next five years, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2%. Signs of an improving economic climate are anticipated as key central banks in the US and Europe lower interest rates, leading to a decline in inflation that could enhance purchasing power.
However, challenges remain, including market saturation in major countries and ongoing political instability in regions like Eastern Europe and the Middle East. Additionally, potential shifts in economic policy under the new US government could foster a resurgence of protectionism.
IDC’s latest forecast is cautiously optimistic, but growth in the connectivity services market is expected to be slow, pushing operators to explore new revenue opportunities. Kresimir Alic, research director at IDC, emphasises several promising areas for operators, including fibre optics, the Internet of Things (IoT), unified communications as a service (UCaaS), software-defined wide area networks (SD-WAN), and 5G-advanced technologies.
Alic advises telecom companies to accelerate digitalising their business processes, adopt data-centric go-to-market strategies, and innovate business models that leverage telco-as-a-platform and collaborative ecosystems.
He concluded that operators must transform from traditional service providers into comprehensive technology suppliers to emerge as leaders in the digital transformation landscape and secure a significant role in an increasingly digitised world.
