As Nigeria rapidly approaches its 2025 deadline for 70 per cent broadband penetration, recent figures present a concerning picture: the nation is still well behind plan.
According to the latest statistics from the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC), broadband penetration is just 47.73 percent, supported by 103.5 million active broadband subscriptions.
These results fall well short of previous commitments. In 2023, the NCC projected that Nigeria would exceed 50 per cent broadband coverage by the end of that year, aiming for 70 per cent by 2025 in line with the National Broadband Plan (2020–2025). While these aspirations were bolstered by an encouraging increase in the telecom sector’s GDP contribution—reaching 16 per cent in Q2 2023—actual broadband adoption has not kept pace.
A closer examination of the data reveals the underlying issues. From March 2024 to March 2025, penetration improved by just over four percentage points, rising from 44% to 48%. This modest growth highlights a broader trend of stagnation and even periodic regression. For instance, between August and September 2024, penetration declined from 43% to 42%, with subscriptions falling from 93.5 million to 90 million.
These fluctuations suggest structural challenges—economic difficulties, limited infrastructure development, and inconsistent investment flows—that hinder stable progress. In 2024, the penetration rate remained below 45 percent, only beginning to show a more consistent upward trend in early 2025.
Industry stakeholders remain cautious. ALTON Chairman Gbenga Adebayo warns that Nigeria may miss its target entirely without major investment in broadband, especially expanding fibre beyond cities.
Adebayo recently warned that the 70% broadband target is out of reach without major investment in last-mile infrastructure. He emphasized upgrading outdated tech and expanding fibre-to-the-home (FTTH) in underserved areas.
With just seven months left in 2025, time is short. Despite good intentions, the current pace suggests Nigeria risks missing its broadband goal without urgent action on deployment, investment, and regulation.
