Sub-Saharan Africa is forecast to be the only global region to record a decline in subscription video-on-demand (SVOD) subscriptions in 2026, according to the latest Video Markets Tracker from 3Vision, published on 6 November 2026.
The report projects a 4.7% decline in SVOD subscriptions across the region, largely attributed to the closure of Showmax, which has removed an established streaming platform from the market. Despite the decline in subscriptions, total streaming revenue in Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to increase by 12.2%, highlighting a shift in how digital video services generate income.
Advertising-supported video-on-demand (AVOD) is expected to play an increasingly important role in this growth. Its contribution to regional streaming revenue is forecast to rise from 35% to 41% in 2026, representing the second-largest increase globally. The average number of streaming services held by each subscriber is also expected to increase from 1.62 to 1.76, although overall subscription penetration remains relatively low.
The outlook for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region presents a different growth trajectory. SVOD subscriptions are forecast to increase by 12.4% in 2026, alongside streaming revenue growth of 12.9%. The average number of services per subscriber is expected to rise from 1.88 to 2.23, reflecting expanding demand for multiple streaming platforms.
Advertising-funded services are also gaining ground in MENA, where AVOD is projected to account for 44% of streaming revenue in 2026, increasing to 45% by 2031. This makes the region the most advertising-led streaming market in 3Vision’s forecast. Overall, MENA streaming revenue is expected to grow from US$5 billion to US$7.6 billion by 2031.
Global Streaming Revenue Growth Shifts Towards Advertising
Globally, the tracker forecasts streaming revenue to increase from US$274 billion in 2026 to US$358 billion by 2031. However, SVOD subscription growth is expected to slow from 6.2% this year to 2.7% over the longer-term outlook.
Advertising-supported video, including free ad-supported streaming television (FAST), is projected to account for approximately US$40 billion of the US$84 billion in additional global streaming revenue by 2031. This slightly exceeds the US$38 billion expected from SVOD growth.
YouTube is also emerging as a major force in the advertising-funded streaming market, accounting for an estimated 51% of global AVOD revenue in 2026.
In his analysis, article author Rafi Cohen argues that revenue per subscriber and the composition of streaming revenue are becoming more important measures of performance than subscriber numbers alone. The findings also point to increasingly divergent regional strategies as streaming providers respond to different market conditions and consumer behaviours.
For African producers, content distributors and rights holders, the projections highlight the growing commercial importance of advertising-supported distribution models. As subscription growth faces pressure, AVOD and FAST platforms could provide additional opportunities for content monetisation, audience reach and the development of sustainable digital distribution strategies.
